• RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: Robinson stands out among potential first-round picks as a healthy, young and elite playmaker.
• WR Michael Pittman Jr. Indianapolis Colts: Pittman should again receive elite target volume this year.
• Dominate fantasy football season with promo code PFF25: Unlock all of PFF's fantasy content and tools, including full access to the fantasy football mock draft simulator, for 25% off using promo code PFF25.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Fantasy football drafts are chock-full of high-quality NFL players in Rounds 1-to-6 but some players stand out among the crowd thanks to both elite profiles and convenient average draft position (ADP). The article below breaks down three of the best draft picks to make in both half-points-per-reception (half-PPR) and PPR scoring formats entering the 2024 NFL season.
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons No. 1 running back Bijan Robinson makes a strong case for the No. 1 overall fantasy football draft pick, regardless of scoring format, yet remains available as half-PPR’s 1.04, RB2 and PPR’s 1.07, RB3. Robinson is a 22-year-old, elite dual-threat player, playing behind a top-three run-blocking offensive line and has fewer concerns than players frequently selected ahead of him. Robinson’s 69.9 PFF offense grade ranks 27th among 33 NFL running backs with at least 475 offensive snaps.
Robinson’s last recorded injury occurred in November 2021 (elbow dislocation). Consulting Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Edwin Porras’ “Injury prone draft guide and season long playbook,” Robinson reassuringly lands in Dr. Porras’ good, green health tier.
As detailed in “Repeat RB1 candidates,” Robinson registered four top-10 rushing metric finishes among 34 NFL running backs with at least 175 rushing attempts and six top-12 receiving metric finishes among 34 NFL running backs with at least 215 receiving snaps, notably demonstrating excellent tackle-breaking and downfield-target-earning abilities.
PFF’s Nathan Jahnke ranks Atlanta’s offensive line third overall and second in run-blocking. It retained all five starters and each player compares favorably to their peers in Brandon Thorn’s top 15 positional offensive line rankings at Trench Warfare. The unit’s 79.3 PFF run-blocking grade ranks third among NFL offensive lines. It should regularly provide wide rushing lanes for Robinson to skate through.
Robinson’s draft-tier company includes San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey, Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill, New York Jets running back Breece Hall, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson and Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. All six players are elite fantasy football producers and fantasy managers should continue using early-to-mid first-round picks on them. Finding competitive edges in the margins is critical to success though and Robinson’s profile possesses fewer negative checkmarks than his tier-mates.
Fantasy football’s early-to-mid first-round draft picks and their areas of concern:
| Early-to-Mid 1st-Round Picks | PFF Offense Grade | Area of Concern |
| Christian McCaffrey | 90.6 | Age-28, Second Calf Strain in 8 Months |
| CeeDee Lamb | 91.3 | Holding Out |
| Tyreek Hill | 93.7 | Age-30, Yellow Tier |
| Breece Hall | 82.5 | 2022 ACL Tear & Meniscus Trim, June 2024 Lower-Body Soreness |
| Justin Jefferson | 91.1 | Yellow Tier, QBs: Journeyman & Injured Rookie |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 85.3 | QB Joe Burrow: Yellow Tier |
Burrow’s 76.8 PFF passing grade ranks 17th among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 dropbacks.
Robinson is one of the best picks in Rounds 1-to-6.
WR Michael Pittman Jr. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts No. 1 wide receiver is available in the late-third round of half-PPR leagues as the WR17 and in the mid-third round of PPR leagues as the WR13. Pittman’s deservedly high target volume and fantasy-friendly offensive environment make him a WR2 floor play with high-end WR1 upside. He finished as the Weeks 1-17 WR16 in half-PPR and WR13 in PPR last year. Pittman’s 78.6 PFF offense grade ranks 14th among 32 NFL wide receivers with at least 830 offensive snaps.
Serving as Indianapolis’ head coach in his inaugural 2023 season, Shane Steichen featured Pittman as the passing-game centerpiece. Pittman tied for the 11th-most first-read regular-season targets (109) and both the ninth-most regular-season targets (150) and red zone targets (20) among NFL wide receivers.
The 6-foot-4, 223-pound Pittman succeeds as a powerful catch-point winner with above-average post-catch talents. His 2023 results should only reinforce Steichen’s initial intent.
Pittman’s 2023 receiving data, first-read target receiving data and red zone target data among 33, 31 and 28 NFL wide receivers with at least 105 targets, 80 first-read targets and 15 red zone targets from Weeks 1-to-Super Bowl LVIII. The full-season data sample is used to provide a larger, more accurate and actionable data sample by examining season-long efficiency.
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Overall Targets | First-Read Targets | Red Zone Targets |
| PFF Receiving Grade | 80.0 (T-No. 18) | 79.2 (No. 25) | 78.6 (No. 3) |
| Target Rate | 26.6% (No. 8) | 28.2% (No. 14) | 29.8% (No. 8) |
| Yards/Route Run | 2.04 (T-No. 18) | 2.12 (No. 22) | 1.52 (No. 2) |
| Catch Rate | 72.7% (No. 8) | 68.8% (No. 8) | 70.0% (No. 5) |
| Contested Catch Rate | 53.6% (T-No. 4) | 60.0% (No. 1) | 50.0% (T-No. 6) |
| Avg. Depth of Target | 8.1 (No. 29) | 9.8 (No. 28) | 5.9 (No. 22) |
| Yards After Catch/Rec. | 4.8 (No. 14) | 3.5 (No. 20) | 4.4 (No. 6) |
| Yards/Rec. | 10.6 (No. 32) | 10.9% (No. 30) | 7.3 (No. 18) |
Pittman’s open-field yardage efficiency falls short of expectations but his surehandedness and general top-six efficiency in scoring position help reinforce his prospects as a floor-play WR2 and upside-WR1.
As detailed in “3 QB1 Candidates Being Drafted QB5 Or Later,” Indianapolis’ offense should feature both improved quarterback play and pass protection, leading to a more stable environment for Pittman to operate in. Indianapolis finished sixth in field goal-scoring drive percentage (17.3%) but just 22nd in touchdown-scoring drive percentage (18.9%). Even if those rates remain similar this year, Indianapolis’ improved offense should yield more trips to the red zone, elevating Pittman’s scoring potential based on volume alone. It is highly likely that the improved offensive environment also yields improved efficiency though, furthering Pittman’s scoring potential.
Indianapolis’ talented second-year wide receiver Josh Downs dealt with knee injuries in each of the last two seasons and recently suffered a high-ankle sprain in training camp. His expectedly slow start in 2024 gives Pittman time to build rapport with quarterback Anthony Richardson, whose 2023 rookie campaign was derailed by an early-season Grade 3 AC joint sprain. Downs’ 68.3 PFF slot-receiving grade ranks 14th among 32 NFL slot receivers with at least 205 slot-receiving snaps. Richardson’s 52.2 PFF offense grade ranks 46th among 50 NFL quarterbacks with at least 170 offensive snaps.
Indianapolis’ second-round rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (6-foot-2, 205 pounds and a 4.34-second 40-yard dash) is an intriguing size-speed prospect, but he disappointingly topped out at just 55 receptions, 845 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 86 targets in his peak, the 2023 college season. His 17.5% target rate and 1.72 YPRR serve as an even louder potential harbinger. Mitchell earned a mid-tier 74.1 PFF receiving grade for his efforts.
Pittman is one of the best fantasy football draft picks in Rounds 1-6.
WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin is available in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats as a borderline Rounds 6-to-7 draft pick, respectively ranking as the WR31 and WR33. McLaurin profiles as a weekly WR2 thanks to a perfect schematic fit with new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, along with McLaurin’s reliable annual target volume and quarterback upgrade. His 84.3 PFF receiving grade rank 16th among 32 NFL wide receivers with at least 1,250 receiving snaps.
As shown in “Best tight end landing spots in the 2024 NFL Draft,” Washington’s offense can be safely expected to finish as a top-12 unit in both plays per game and play-action passing rate, creating a fantasy-friendly passing environment.
McLaurin has typically excelled when given play-action opportunities, though he had a down year in 2023, catching passes from errant-armed quarterback Sam Howell. From 2019-to-2022, McLaurin averaged 2.75-plus yards per route run (YPRR) on play-action-passing plays and produced a 71.0% catch rate in three-of-four qualifying seasons. Those numbers dropped to 1.29 and 41.7%, respectively, though he caught 90.9% of play-action passes deemed catchable. Among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 dropbacks, Howell ranks 15th in big-time-throw rate (4.7%), 23rd in completion rate (63.4%), 24th in average depth of target (aDot, 7.7) and 29th in turnover-worthy play rate (4.1%). His 57.6 PFF passing grade ranks 29th.
Among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 315 play-action-passing receiving snaps over the last three seasons, McLaurin ties for 19th in YPRR (2.46), ranks 18th in target rate (21.8%), ninth in yards per reception (17.1) and sixth in both explosive pass plays (37) and explosive pass play rate (53.6%).
McLaurin has reliably earned targets regardless of play type during that span, despite volatile circ*mstances. Among regular season NFL wide receivers, McLaurin’s 126 targets in 2021 rank 13th, his 115 targets in 2022 rank 19th and his 128 targets in 2023 rank 17th.
As detailed in “3 QB1 Candidates Being Drafted QB5 Or Later,” 2023 Heisman winner and Washington’s new starter quarterback Jayden Daniels is both an elite rusher and an elite passer. Among 31 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 375 dropbacks in 2023, Daniels ranks top seven in aDot (10.5) turnover-worthy play rate (1.7%), completion rate (71.1%) and big-time-throw rate (8.4%). His 92.0 PFF passing grade ranks second.
McLaurin has all the hallmarks of a weekly WR2 available as a mid-tier WR3.
